Intelligence Collection Plan (ICP)
A collection of various primary, secondary, and tertiary sources used throughout the analytic process.
Link Analysis (LA)
King Mohammed VI’s Dominant Position In Morocco
Executive Summary
King Mohammed VI has the most power in Morocco through his position as King, economic involvement, and appeal to the poor from his promise to erase poverty and unemployment. As King, he has the power to appoint or dismiss the prime minister, giving him total control of the government. Mohammed owns a large portion of the economy through his investments, purchase of land and acquisition of major corporations. The King also gained the support of the lower class and women through his plan to reduce poverty and unemployment while increasing jobs and civil rights.
Discussion
The King has the power and right to appoint and dismiss the Prime Minister, veto any bill or act passed by the government, and has the ultimate say for the entire country. He can choose who will have the second most power in the country, but he can also veto a bill or law that would infringe upon his own executive powers. The palace refused any constitutional reforms that would empower parliament by limiting the royal mandate.[i] The ability for the King to further his power and capabilities is a concern for many foreign countries as his power could quickly get out of control. The King has also been accused of corruption by U.S. reports, stating the Royal family is using state institutions to ‘coerce and bribe’ in the real estate sector.[ii] These accusations are common amongst Mohammed as he has so much power to manipulate the government as well as the budget.
King Mohammed VI is the largest land owner and agricultural producer in Morocco.[iii] He is also one of the top bankers in the country, as well as owning some of the highest-class manufacturing plants. The King is one of the leading investors in Africa as a whole and is the number one manufacturer, insurer, and agricultural producer in Morocco.[iv] When his father died, he inherited nearly USD $500 million which allowed him to use this to invest and purchase a wide range of businesses around the country. Being one of the richest men in the world, and ruling of one of the most economically stable countries in Africa, gives King Mohammed VI far greater power than any other figure or group in the country of Morocco.
When King Mohammed VI first took the throne, he spoke to the nation via television and won the country over with his plan to take on poverty, unemployment, and human rights. Five years after taking throne, he enacted a new law called Mudawana, which gave more rights to women. This law is now considered one of the most progressive in the Arab World.[v] Passing this law alone gave him the support of not only the poor, but now mostly all women support the King. His strong start as the King allowed him to gain support from different demographics in the country, which increases the total power and leverage of King Mohammed VI.
[i] https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/moroccos-king-mohammed-vi-10-years-and-counting/.
[ii] https://mg.co.za/article/2010-12-10-us-diplomats-decry-moroccan-kings-corruption.
[iii] "http://pages.vassar.edu/envisioningspainsborder/?p=1216.
[iv] http://pages.vassar.edu/envisioningspainsborder/?p=1216. ]
[v] https://www.centreforpublicimpact.org/case-study/moroccan-moudawana-reform/.
Indicator Analysis (IA)
Morocco’s Trans-National Relations, Health Care, and Economy Provide Future Stability
Executive Summary
Morocco’s transnational relations, health care policy, and economic performance are all factors that will continue to provide future stability for the country in the next 12-18 months. The various transnational relations the country has have increased the foreign investment within the country and has allowed the government to use this to build more infrastructure. Health care is one factor that plays a major role in the stability of the country and can be a major positive or negative towards the overall stability. However, Morocco’s strong economy will allow the country to remain at their current level of stability in the future months.
Discussion
In 2017, Morocco was reported to be the #1 destination for investment within all of Africa.[i] Various countries around the world are beginning to invest within Morocco either in their economy, tourism, or abundance of phosphate. Since the country controls over 75% of the world’s phosphorus, many foreign countries are beginning to invest as they know how reliant Europe is on phosphate.[ii] Having a strong economy will promote future stability by allowing the government to allocate efficient money to areas of concern or problem. It also increases the number of foreign investors and foreign countries that are interested and involved in the country. This will then increase the stability as the more foreign countries that are invested and have stake in the country, the more focus and public awareness of the situation. Morocco’s strong economy will continue to promote not only economic stability, but trans-national stability as well.
Health care is another issue, both in terms of accessibility and quality. The government provided 8 million of the poor citizens with insurance, yet very little is done when these citizens seek help.[iii] Citizens who seek medical treatments from a hospital must come prepared with many of their own supplies including water, sheets, and even additional medications that are not provided by the hospital.[iv] The quality and accessibility of healthcare is an issue that will impact the overall stability of the country as stability goes hand in hand with healthy citizens and a long life-expectancy.
The various relations that Morocco has with European countries or other major world powers will continue to provide trans-national stability to the country. Since the country is located very close to Europe and has good relations with many of these countries, Morocco benefits from many of the European Union actions. The EU provides Morocco with economic aid as well as trade and technical assistance.[v] Spain and Morocco has a particularly special relation as majority of the migration from Europe to Africa, or vice versa, comes through these two countries.[vi] Spain and Morocco have been working together to reduce the number of illegal migrants, and Morocco has seen the benefits in many other aspects of their country.
[i] https://globalriskinsights.com/2019/01/morocco-stable-growth-challenges/.
[ii] https://www.pri.org/stories/2013-11-21/worlds-food-supply-depends-morocco-heres-why.
[iii] https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2018/03/241860/morocco-continually-failing-health-care-system/.
[iv] https://marocmama.com/handling-medical-emergencies-and-healthcare-in-morocco/.
[v] https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/neighbourhood/countries/morocco_en.
[vi] https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_morocco_the_eu_and_the_migration_dilemma.
Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH)
Morocco’s Economy, Geographic Location, and Powerful Allies Show Stability
Executive Summary
Morocco’s strong economy, geographic location, and powerful allies are some of the main variables the will continue to promote stability in the country. The economy relies heavily on exporting raw materials and agriculture, however another major aspect of their economy is tourism. Tourism is one sign that a country is considered safe to travel to and is likely a stable country. The country is located closest to Europe than any other African country, allowing them to take advantage of closer relations and the European Union.
Discussion
The economy of Morocco is heavily reliant upon the exports of cars, raw material, and agricultural goods.[1] Another large portion of their economy is tourism. This means that the public perception of Morocco is a relatively safe country that is a good travel destination, which is a good sign of stability. The International Trade Administration recently announced a business development mission in Morocco that will introduce US firms to businesses in Morocco.[2] More firms will be involved in the economy of Morocco which will further stabilize the economy but also the country as a whole.
Located at the northern point of Africa, Morocco is the crossroads between Europe and Africa.[3] This means they are between the Muslim world of Africa, and Christian world of Europe, and must deal with the two clashing religions. This is also a positive for them as they can easily get involved in a number of trades that go from Europe down to Africa, as they must go through Morocco. As many people are starting to notice Africa as nearly an ‘untapped’ market, more and more foreign investment will enter Africa.[4] Being between Europe and Africa allows them to remain involved as well as having a voice in any trade negotiations that will occur. However, the true stability of this country is evident through their relationships.
The United States and Morocco have had good relations since the late 1770’s when Morocco opened their ports to American ships.[5] The U.S and Morocco share similar views on human development, human rights, and joint military exercises, so it has been in the U. S’s interest to maintain this relationship and continue to send aid and military support to Morocco if needed. Having the military and economic support of one of the most powerful countries in the world is a major benefit to Morocco’s stability. Morocco also has the support from other big powers such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, France and other European countries.[6]. These powerful allies serve as a deterrent to many dangers that come with being a smaller country that is less developed.
[1] https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/mar/.
[3] https://www.export.gov/article?id=Morocco-Safety-and-Security.
[4] https://www.loc.gov/rr/frd/cs/profiles/Morocco.pdf. (2019).
[5] https://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5431.htm.
[6] http://www.imuna.org/resources/country-profiles/morocco.
Intelligence Preparation of Battlefield (IPB)
Geographic and Environmental Factor’s Role in the Stability of Morocco
Executive Summary
Morocco’s unique geographic location and various environmental issues will balance out and continue the country on a stable path. Located between Europe and Africa, Morocco is the bridge between the two continents and this can be a positive or negative factor. The country also struggles with various environmental issues that might potentially affect the health and well-being of the citizens.
Discussion
Morocco is located in Northern Africa and borders the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea, while also being the link between Europe and Africa.[1] Therefore, the country is very diverse in culture and religion which could both have an impact on the overall stability of Morocco.[2] The economy benefits from being between these two continents as the diverse culture has helped increase tourism but also by trade that must travel through the country. However, the geographic location poses a potential threat of security as a large portion of their borders are ocean waters. Overall, the geographic location of Morocco is beneficial for the economic stability as well as the diverse culture, but could be a potential threat to the security of the country.
Water scarcity and quality, land deforestation, pollution, and erosion are just some of the environmental issues facing Morocco that all play a role in the overall stability.[3] An issue with the availability and quality of water in the country could cause the citizens to be politically motivated to resolve this issue through the government. This would then impact the political stability as the people will likely push for a new person to power that will resolve these various environmental issues, causing political unrest. Population issues have led to deforestation, erosion, and various other negative impacts on the environment.[4] These issues could then impact the agricultural sector of their economy, which is a major portion of their exports.
References
[2] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/735288/Mass-tourism-threat-to-Morocco.html.
[3] https://www.africaw.com/major-problems-facing-morocco-today.
[4] http://www.countriesquest.com/africa/morocco/land_and_resources/environmental_issues.htm.
Multi-Criteria Dimension Matrix (MCDM)
Promoting Stability in Morocco By Investing in Healthcare and Education
Executive Summary
Investing USD 50 million into improving healthcare and 50 million into education will likely promote long-term stability in Morocco. Investing in the healthcare system will increase the quality of public health and the accessibility while also improving the economy and promoting stability. Spending within the education department will benefit the country in a number of ways but most importantly it will increase the number of skilled workers within the workforce.
Discussion
The quality and accessibility of public healthcare is a major issue within Morocco as the government avoids budgeting more than 3% of their GDP on healthcare.[1] Access to quality healthcare is limited as public healthcare lacks in quality while private options are usually unaffordable.[2] 50 million into the healthcare system will allow the government to build new hospitals, improve technology and the quality of equipment used, and promote jobs through increasing the pay to doctors and adding more hospitals that will need doctors. These additions can create jobs for the future as well as improving the overall health of the citizens to promote long-term stability.
By spending USD 25 million on education, citizens will have better access to schooling which will then likely increase the number of skilled laborers. Morocco has a literacy rate of 70 percent for the total population,[3] but only 64 percent of the working-age population has completed secondary education.[4] This means a large portion of the employed are not highly educated or skilled workers and therefore, are less productive and valuable to private companies.[5] Increased schooling could improve the ratio of skilled to non-skilled workers in the workforce. This USD 25 million can create new schools, universities, libraries and other projects beneficial to the economy, but will also immediately benefit the citizens and workforce by adding value and skills to the individual worker.
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References
[1] https://thearabweekly.com/moroccos-2019-finance-bill-prioritise-social-issues.
[2] http://looklex.com/e.o/morocco.health.htm.
[3] https://www.indexmundi.com/morocco/literacy.html.
[4] https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2018/05/247118/moroccos-unemployment-rise-2018-2028-report/.
